NEW YORK, United States / RankWire.AI / – On Friday, oil prices surged sharply, with Brent crude reaching $110 a barrel for the first time since May. The increase was driven by concerns that escalating conflicts in the Middle East could lead to tighter supply. Brent for December settlement gained $3.94, or 3.7%, closing at $109.86, marking its highest finish since May 19. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by $3.44, or 3.5%, to $101.41, its peak since September 17. Traders also evaluated Russia’s ability to supply diesel.
Both benchmarks experienced significant weekly gains, with WTI advancing 10.4% and Brent increasing 4.9%, marking their second consecutive week of growth. Brent remained nearly unchanged on Thursday, when WTI rose more than 3%. The spread between the two narrowed as WTI outpaced Brent. Bloomberg noted that Friday’s swing was the first notable move in a week otherwise confined within a range. Earlier in October, Brent had surged above $103 before the latest upward movement.
Trader concerns continue to center on security threats around the Strait of Hormuz. Over the past 10 days, attacks near the waterway have increased, with Iran stating it is intensifying strikes in response to a U.S. blockade of its ports and the tougher sanctions imposed last month. Analysts at Kpler reported that these attacks have severely reduced crude flows from the Gulf. According to Rapidan Energy Group, a Saudi-led coalition intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at Yanbu in the Red Sea, with initial reports indicating no damage.
Refined fuel markets boosted by diesel concerns and refinery disruptions
Fears over supply have extended into refined fuels. Ukraine targeted a Russian refinery on Thursday after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced Kyiv would abandon an energy-site ceasefire declared by U.S. President Donald Trump. Industry sources told Reuters that the Ryazan refinery halted a primary crude distillation unit following a drone attack. Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial mentioned it was uncertain how much diesel Russia could supply, adding that Middle East risks and Russian supply doubts kept traders active in buying.
Diesel futures closed at $4.90 a gallon in New York, according to Bloomberg. Diesel futures in Europe have more than doubled this year. Refineries elsewhere have increased processing to compensate for the Russian shortfall. Although Trump has stated Moscow will honor its agreement to release Russian diesel into global markets, U.S. lawmakers introduced a bill on Friday to block that arrangement. The outage at Ryazan adds to the uncertainty over whether this fuel will reach consumers promptly.
International Energy Agency and U.S. reserves act to stabilize supply
Emergency stockpiles are being utilized to alleviate supply pressures. The International Energy Agency agreed on Thursday to release over 20 million barrels of fuel. The U.S. Department of Energy followed suit on Friday, issuing a request for proposals to exchange up to 17 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Additionally, the U.S. had previously agreed to lend 172 million barrels as part of a broader plan involving about 30 IEA member countries to release 400 million barrels.
Analysts anticipate that geopolitical risks will continue to support prices. Energy Aspects noted that both Brent and WTI reversed earlier losses on Friday, with ongoing escalation concerns underpinning the market. Rebecca Babin of CIBC Private Wealth Group stated that traders are factoring in risk again after a brief pause, especially ahead of the weekend. A significant U.S. crude inventory drawdown, driven by hurricane-related shutdowns, also contributed to the price support. Brent closed the week just below $110.