PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal is evaluating a potential further decrease in daily ship transits as its water resources face ongoing drought stress. According to the administrator, Ilya Espino de Marotta, the number of ships could be reduced to approximately 29 per day in February or March 2027. Any additional reductions would depend on persistent dry weather and reservoir water levels. Currently, the waterway is approaching a cap of 32 transits per day, effective from Sept. 15.
Following below-average rainfall and watershed inflows during the wet season, the Panama Canal Authority initiated capacity reductions. Transits initially decreased to 34 before the planned cut to 32. The operation relies on freshwater stored in Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to operate its locks, with each transit requiring water to elevate or lower vessels between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
During fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 transits daily through June 30. From October to June, it recorded 10,726 crossings, representing a 5.2% rise compared to the same period last year. These figures preceded the worsening rainfall conditions that have led to new operational restrictions. The canal continues to serve as a critical corridor for container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and other vessels involved in global trade.
Reservoir levels influence daily transit capacity
Water levels have historically dictated how many ships can pass through the canal during dry spells. During the severe 2023 drought, daily transits declined to 22 in December as Gatun Lake’s levels fell to unusually low points. After rainfall resumed and water conservation efforts helped reservoirs recover, conditions improved. The canal’s management continues to monitor lake levels, watershed inflows, and precipitation when determining daily operational limits.
Additionally, officials have modified vessel draft regulations as part of current water management strategies. A planned reduction of the Neopanamax draft to 47.5 feet was postponed after reviewing updated reservoir data. The maximum draft remains at 48 feet. These draft limits impact how deeply a vessel is submerged, affecting cargo capacity during transit.
Fewer slots lead to tighter booking and auction procedures
With a decrease in daily transit slots, the canal has revised its booking and auction processes. Current auction categories now differentiate vessels by cargo type, including container ships, gas carriers, tankers, and bulk carriers. When conditions are comparable, full container ships with higher capacity are prioritized in some Neopanamax allocations. The authorities have also urged vessels without reservations to utilize the booking system, as confirmed bookings guarantee scheduled transit dates.
While no official decision has been made to restrict traffic to 29 ships per day, Espino de Marotta mentioned that this figure could be a possible limit if dry conditions persist into early 2027. Furthermore, the canal is progressing with the Río Indio reservoir project to enhance long-term water storage. Officials state that this initiative will support canal operations and improve water access for a significant portion of Panama’s population.