ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of the population living in extreme poverty within the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this statistic in its October 2026 regional economic update. Poverty measurement was based on the international threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at this level increased by 6.4 percentage points, making the country the largest contributor to extreme poverty within MENAAP.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen collectively make up another 47% of individuals living below the $3 threshold across the region. Alongside Pakistan, these three nations represent roughly 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor. Currently, about 14% of the global population living in extreme poverty resides in the region, second only to Sub-Saharan Africa. MENAAP remains the sole region where poverty levels surpass pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
In addition, Pakistan’s poverty situation worsened at the higher $4.20 daily poverty line used for lower-middle-income economies. The proportion of the population below this threshold increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. The rate reached nearly 48% in 2024, compared to 44.7% in 2018. The regional analysis attributed the rise to factors including the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation, and extended economic adjustment. These shocks are cited as key drivers behind the worsening poverty indicators in Pakistan.
Poverty levels increase following multiple economic shocks
Earlier in 2026, new household survey data prompted a significant revision of regional poverty estimates. The updated figures raised MENAAP’s 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%, adding approximately 21 million people to the region’s total count of those living in extreme poverty. As of September 2026, MENAAP remains one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the other.
Despite a return to positive economic growth, Pakistan’s poverty levels remain high. The latest projections estimate GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% for 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027. This suggests that inflation is likely to outpace economic growth in 2027, despite ongoing improvements in the overall economy.
Changes in regional classification influence poverty comparison metrics
The 48% share also reflects a statistical adjustment that impacted regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank’s classification system shifted Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. According to Pakistan’s government, this administrative change did not alter the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the new grouping affected regional poverty figures because Pakistan’s large population was included in MENAAP calculations. Consequently, this classification influences how regional poverty shares are presented.
The October update also highlighted weaker economic conditions across MENAAP in 2026. The region’s output is projected to decline by 2.1% after experiencing 3.3% growth in 2025. Several economies faced challenges from conflicts and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade. Nonetheless, developing oil-importing nations, including Pakistan, are expected to remain relatively resilient, with a forecasted growth of 4.3% in 2026. However, rising food and energy prices continue to exert pressure on household purchasing power across multiple countries.